|  | | | | | Your weekly commentary – For the week ended November 17 | | Global equity markets finished higher over the week ended November 17, with economic data raising expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve Board ("Fed") and other central banks may hold steady over the remainder of 2023. The S&P/TSX Composite Index advanced, led by the Information Technology sector. U.S. equities also moved higher over the week. Oil prices declined, while the price of gold increased. Yields on 10-year government bonds in Canada and the U.S. dropped. | Canada's real estate activity slows- More signs of the Canadian real estate market slowing emerged in October, as higher borrowing costs weigh on demand.
- The Canadian Real Estate Association ("CREA") reported sales of existing homes dropped by 5.6% in October, the fourth consecutive decline.
- CREA says many would-be buyers might be sitting on the sidelines waiting for mortgage rates, or home prices, to come down.
- The real estate association also reported the benchmark home price dropped by 0.8%
- More housing is on the way, which may help balance the market. Housing starts in Canada advanced by 1% to 274,700 in October.
| U.S. inflation falls considerably- The U.S. inflation rate moved a bit closer to the Fed's 2% target in October, reaching 3.2% compared to 3.7% in September.
- October's rate came in below economists' expectations.
- A sharp drop in energy prices contributed to the slowdown in October, as did easing price growth for shelter and food.
- Softening demand also appears to be weighing on inflation. Retail sales dropped by 0.1% in October. While the fall was not as big as economists had expected, it suggests that tight financial conditions may be catching up to U.S. consumers.
| U.K. inflation continues downward trajectory- Inflation in the U.K. keeps coming down. The U.K. inflation rate was 4.6% in October, a marked slowdown from the 6.7% rate in September and the 10.1% pace at the beginning of the year.
- Energy and housing costs declined in October, which led to the slowest pace of inflation since October 2021.
- Core inflation also moderated in October.
- Demand has weakened amid tight financial conditions. Retail sales dropped by 0.3% in October, the second consecutive monthly decline.
- With inflation coming down and economic conditions relatively weak, the Bank of England may hold steady at its last meeting of 2023.
| China's pace of industrial production improves- Industrial production in China rose by 4.6% year-over-year in October, outpacing the 4.5% annual growth in September, in another sign economic activity in the world's second-largest economy may be stabilizing.
- Contributing to the increase was a rise in production in the manufacturing and mining sectors.
- Similarly, growth in retail sales accelerated in October compared to September, rising by 7.6% year-over-year, the fastest pace since May 2023.
- Sales increased for automobiles, communications equipment and furniture.
| | | | Equity markets | Level | YTD | 1 Yr | | S&P/TSX Composite Index C$ | 20,175.77 | 4.08% | 1.46% | | MSCI USA Index US$ | 4,295.72 | 18.01% | 14.63% | | MSCI EAFE Index US$ | 2,100.88 | 8.07% | 10.48% | | MSCI Emerging Markets Index US$ | 976.52 | 2.11% | 3.62% | | MSCI Europe Index US$ | 1,896.49 | 9.52% | 12.18% | | MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index US$ | 160.88 | 3.30% | 5.54% | | Fixed income market | Level | YTD | 1 Yr | | FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index C$ | 1,069.31 | 1.73% | 1.63% | | FTSE World Broad Investment Grade Bond Index US$ | 204.12 | 0.94% | 1.70% | | Currency | Level | YTD | 1 Yr | | CAD/USD | 0.7287 | -1.46% | -3.10% | | Commodities | Level | YTD | 1 Yr | | West Texas Intermediate (US$/bbl) | 75.89 | -5.44% | -7.04% | | Gold (US$/oz) | 1,980.82 | 8.60% | 12.52% | | Silver (US$/oz) | 23.27 | -0.98% | 13.18% |
| | Market performance – as at November 17, 2023 | | | | | |
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